Poltical Earthquakes?

There's a theory going around that time itself is speeding up. It's to do with something called the Schumann resonance. It may sound like typical internet weirdness, but looking at the speed of political and economic events in the last year or so it would make you wonder.

Starting with the banking collapse: I'm doing a lot of research on this for a presentation I'll start giving in public later this year. I strongly suspect it is not so much a mystery of capitalism - more a gigantic heist. Scores of billions going into a black hole as the state underwrites casino-fraud and people run around calling it "socialism". Privatised gains and nationalised losses; The elite consolidating assets and power while the profane mass look on agog, knowing in thier gut that something is amiss but not fully understanding because we're not being told. The Guardian has just reported that big bonuses are back in the city.

Are we witnessing the latest in a series of bubbles - the Bailout bubble?

Following the bailouts came a series of scandals people could relate to more easily, but essentially the expense / allowances scandal is a story of petty corruption. In the 1980s MPs salaries started to increase less quickly. It was seen as too politically insensitive to openly give them so much money. Generous expenses with lax rules were a back-door way of keeping up their incomes. Anyone who followed politics closely knew this. So the basic MP wage is something over £60k, but I always assumed that they got quite a few 10s of thousands on top of that, plus the chance to employ their families as secretaries and so forth.

I'm not for a minute defending or excusing the behaviour of many MPs, and the detail has often quite shocking. Many more should be prosecuted for fraud likely will be. However, the scale of any rip-off by individual MPs is nothing compared to massive systemic problems and rip-offs in the banking system.

Nonetheless, the atmosphere before the European elections seemed far more angry than following the bailouts. Was it a straw breaking the camel's back or is just that flipping 2nd homes, Duck Island and the like are easier understood than co-lateralised debt obligations, credit default swaps and other instruments of mass banking fraud?

Through May we were endlessly told how furious the public was and how terribly humble the MPs felt. What did it amount to? Letters to the editor, moaning in pubs, some heckling on "Any Questions"?

Localised cases of workers struggle and community resistance exist, and are growing through neccessity, often under-reported. But a meaningful mass resistance to the mass rip-off simply hasn't occurred. The biggest protests, organised for the same day by Climate Camp and G20 Meltdown, were put down with violence. That's what awaits anything much more assertive than a whinge.

So to the election results themselves, and the victory of the fascists in the North-west and Yorkshire: The repercussions will be with us for years and the blogosphere is full of analysis and a degree of headless-chickenism. For me the region is now politically contaminated. Although we are gutted, we also have to take the long view as calmly as possible.

The BNP got in through the ballot box and the only way to truly lift the curse will be to kick them out the same way. It's not a partisan analysis to state that The Green Party look like the best hope for doing so (0.3% behind the BNP in the elections)

In truth UKIP were even closer to denying the BNP by taking a 2nd seat, but I can't imagine many people reading this are about to take a bigger interest in them :)

So what do recent events show us? That people are angry, but do not feel empowered to do very much about it. Surely this represents a let-off for the elite and a failure of the broad left, even if many circumstances are against us.

We are still paying for the banks and have the same basic political system we've had for many generations.

Was all that anger just "sound and fury signifying nothing"?

If people were motivated to do something at the ballot box, it was at least as likely to benefit reactionary politics as radical politics. There is a historical bias in the media towards the former, played out again this time by over-hyping of the BNP's chances (in the end they got less votes than The Greens nationally but far more coverage before and after June 4)

Am I just blaming other people? A lying press, a timid or gullible public? No. The Greens and the broad left have to seriously up our game. The communiques are flying back and forth between left groups and it's too early to say what will come of it yet.

For all the pros and cons of No2EU I think their biggest strategic drawback was simply leaving it too late. I doubt they will survive long term, but am interested in unions backing a non-Labour Party. That alone is worth building on (I'm also sympathetic to euro-skepticism. I don't want the UK to pull out, but if The Lisbon Treaty is passed I may reconsider that. Lisbon represents steps too far, and the deliberately anti-democratic way it is being implemented is flat-out vile)

If the left prevaricated too long before the Euros, it looks like they are doing the same for the General Elections. For better or worse, it looks like The Green Party represent the best chance of getting a genuine radical party in Westminster next time around. And regardless of how you feel about that, remember that 1 or 2 Green MPs could well offset the propaganda effect of 2 fascist MEPs.

Till next time

Steve.